Armagh v Kerry, Croke Park, Saturday, 5.30pm
Live on RTÉ2 and BBC Two NI
Apart from Dublin defeats, six of Kerry’s seven most recent All-Ireland exits have been at the hands of Ulster counties. It’s a long-running vulnerability and maybe explains the ultra-caution of the county’s quarter-final against Derry. At times it looked as if they might be on the verge of losing but a steady finish ultimately put them clear.
What will Armagh bring to this? Kieran McGeeney has fashioned an extraordinarily resilient team, competitive with anybody. Their quarter-final was no cause for celebration either, a “sufficient unto the day” performance against 14-man Roscommon.
The Ulster finalists do have something going for them. Momentum. After 19 years of trying Armagh are back in the All-Ireland semi-finals. They have played a better class of opponent than Kerry and the one they have in common, Derry, got a far worse beating from Kieran McGeeney’s team.
Kerry may have issues in the lack of top form from their key forwards but they coped comfortably enough with what Derry threw at them. Above all they found enough to win the match.
David Clifford may be only ticking over but he has such a good Croke Park record that it would be very surprising were he not a major factor in the semi-final. Kerry are also getting scores from farther back as Brian Ó Beaglaoich has been positively prolific, scoring 0-7 in the last three outings.
The O’Connors, Diarmuid and Joe, have been decent at centrefield and they got a good belt from the bench against Derry, while Cillian Burke has been especially impressive as a dynamic half forward.
Armagh have a thoroughly proven replacements list. Stefan Campbell has scored vital points, Jarly Óg Burns brings pace and Ross McQuillan presence.
They continue to have a problem in dropping off the pace almost as soon as they gain the initiative, almost a survivalist instinct that frequently militates against survival.
Rian O’Neill is another who hasn’t shone at his usual wattage this year, and although he too has a good Croke Park portfolio, the quarter-final was not one of them. Conor Turbitt has been excellent up front and will continue to cause trouble.
The conclusion is that although Armagh can make things very difficult for their opponents the team personality makes them unreliable prospects in the endgame, which for all their lack of sparkle Kerry are proven performers.
Verdict: Kerry
Donegal v Galway, Croke Park, Sunday, 4.0pm
Live on RTÉ2 and BBC Two NI
Emotion presumably ran high in Galway after the untimely death of All-Ireland winning manager John O’Mahony but he would not have wanted it to disrupt Pádraic Joyce’s preparations. They are already fraught enough from juggling the injury problems although to judge from the team sheet none of the afflicted are ruled out apart from impressive replacement back Cian Hernon.
Donegal arrive as Ulster champions and having smoothly disposed of Louth in the quarter-final although 0-18 was the biggest concession of any of the semi-finalists and representative of their season to date.
Jim McGuinness’s team have built their season on a good defence – with the exception of the outlier trip to Cork where they got riddled with three – they have not conceded a goal in the championship.
Brendan McCole runs a tight ship from full back and they are hard to penetrate. Their fast-breaking attacks have been super-productive, bringing impressive shooting and a range of scorers.
Ryan McHugh is back to his best as both a playmaker and counter-attacker, whereas Peadar Mogan has been a standout supplier of scores from defence and inveterate accumulator of Man of the Match awards.
Challenges here include the quality of Galway’s defence from the tight-marking corner backs, Johnny McGrath to the fore, to wing backs who know how and when to counter-attack.
Then there is the physicality of the Connacht champions’ centrefield and half forwards: Paul Conroy, Matthew Tierney, John Maher, who tamed Brian Fenton the last day, and Cillian McDaid, looking back to his phenomenal best, are significant presences.
“Their whole half-forward line is 6ft 4ins, they’re big boys, like,” mused an impressed Kieran McGeeney after Armagh’s draw with Galway.
Practically this allows Connor Gleeson to hit his restarts as long as he wants, knowing the contest is more likely to favour his team.
Jason McGee is named in the Donegal panel after injury, and McGuinness could really do with him for this although he will surely have a plan to deal with such a structural disadvantage.
There is the suspicion that not all of the Galway injuries could have cleared up so conveniently. Shane Walsh again finished a match, the quarter- final, looking hobbled but his manager has apparently bullet-proof faith in his various knocks to recover.
Damien Comer wasn’t at his best against Dublin but raised his game in the latter stages but Rob Finnerty is a worry as his precise shooting is an important part of the team’s productivity.
If there is a concern for Joyce it is the poverty of the first half against Dublin and how close they came to being beaten by half-time – saved largely by Walsh’s preternatural marksmanship. Should they start sluggishly here they are in danger of being run off their feet.
Galway also have a tendency to produce their best stuff under pressure, retrieving both the Connacht final and All-Ireland quarter-final late in the day. They may need a better tempo and urgency for this.
Verdict: Galway