Friday, November 22, 2024

Where the All-Ireland football final will be won and lost

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When Conleith Gilligan joined the Armagh backroom, his research identified that the team needed more scoring power from the bench – and who could provide it. In their subsequent eight championship games Armagh have only once been outscored by the opposing bench.

Against both Down in the Ulster semi-final and Kerry in the All Ireland semi-final they outscored the opposing bench by two points, the difference between winning and losing. At some stage over the summer Stefan ‘Soup’ Campbell, Aidan Nugent, Ross McQuillan and Oisin O’Neill have all either scored in at least three consecutive matches or found the net when sprung from the bench.

But Galway have a bomb squad of their own. Their bench similarly has only once been outscored this summer – by Armagh (0-1 to 0-0) in their drawn group game in Sligo. Tally all nine of their championship games up and they’ve blitzed opposing benches 3-15 to 0-6. Look at all the close games they’ve won: against Sligo, Mayo, Dublin, the side once renowned for their ‘Finishers’. On each occasion the Galway bench either outscored the opposition’s 0-3 to 0-0, or 0-3 to 0-1.

The difference each day. Likely to be the difference the next day.

THE DEFENCE FACTOR: FIRST TO 17 POINTS WINS

In the covid-restricted championship of 2021, Armagh exited the championship shipping 4-17 to Monaghan. Cian O’Neill coached a Cork team that gave up 4-22 to Kerry. The same day Padraic Joyce saw his team steamrolled 2-8 to 0-3 after halftime by Mayo. All three parties were scarred and informed by how porous they were that July. Look how impenetrable their teams are now.

In their three subsequent championship games against Mayo, an O’Neill-coached Galway have conceded a total of just one goal. Over the last two summers they’ve never conceded more than a goal in a game. They’ve kept a clean sheet in 11 of their 14 games. No team has scored more than 0-16 against them this summer.

Armagh have been similarly stingy, keeping a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 games this year. It’s a matter of discipline as much as shape. Only once this year have they conceded more than four scored frees. Galway have been even more disciplined, giving up just an average of 2.3 points from frees this summer (to Armagh’s 3.3). When Armagh won their All Ireland in 2002, they confined Dara Ó Cinnéide to just three frees. A year later they coughed up 0-7 to Canavan and Mulligan – and lost.

STAR POWER: THE ‘GIVE ME THE BALL’ FACTOR

After Clare won the Allianz Hurling League Division 1 title, we pointed out in these pages that the unavailability of Tony Kelly afforded and demanded others to step up but to get over the line in July they’d need his star power. So it proved.

For Kelly, read Shane Walsh. All-Irelands often hinge on magic; outside of Cillian O’Connor in 2016 and Andy Moran in 2017, how many Mayo forwards could or did light it up over all those Septembers?

Walsh demonstrated two years ago he has that capacity, a la Fitzgerald, Joyce Cooper, Murphy, Brogan, O’Callaghan, Clifford. But Rian O’Neill is also a big moment player: think of his equalising quarter-finals scores in 2022 and 2023, his go-ahead boomer against Kerry a fortnight ago.

Singular talents as much as systems could decide this one.

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