On Thursday night we’ve got a bottom of the group clash between two nations looking for their first points of this Nations League campaign. This Finland v Republic of Ireland match up will be important for either side to avoid relegation to Group C.
Finland opened their campaign with a 3-0 defeat away to Greece before a 2-0 loss at Wembley against England. However, Finland will now look to take advantage of playing at home for the next two games and make it count, especially against a struggling Irish side. With all that in mind, here’s @FootyAccums‘ in-depth preview for Thursday night.
Finland v Ireland Tips
Correct score: 1-1
WHEN: Thursday 10th October, 7.45pm
WHERE: Helsinki Olympic Stadium
TV: RTE2
With neither side keeping a clean sheet in their previous five, we don’t expect things to be any different in this fixture. Both teams have similar form going into this match, with both sides winning only once in their previous five.
Both teams have also scored in five of the last seven involving Finland and while the hosts have a slight advantage in the two previous wins over Ireland in recent meetings, less than 2.5 goals have been scored in six of their last eight meetings.
Finland Team News
Finland are expected to field the same line-up as they did in their impressive performance against England in September, with no fresh injury concerns heading into their upcoming double header.
Ireland Team News
Luton Town centre-back Mark McGuinness receives his first call-up to the senior squad following his impressive form for the Hatters this season. Middlesbrough midfielder Finn Azaz is also recalled to the squad. Watford right-back Festy Ebosele, who came into the squad for the injured Seamus Coleman for the Greece game last month, is also named.
Josh Cullen comes back into the squad after an injury prevented him being included in the last squad. Ipswich Town midfielder Jack Taylor receives his first call-up to the Ireland squad since June 2023 as well.
Finland Form Guide
In their last five games, Finland started with a game against Estonia where they were 2–1 winners at home. They took a two goal lead in the first 38 minutes through Fredrik Jensen and a Karl Hein own goal. Estonia would manage to get a goal in the 62nd minute; however, this would only be a consolation goal.
Finland would then play Portugal away from home, Portugal would be 3-0 up by the 55th minute, however Talisman Teemu Pukki would score a brace after 77 minutes to make it 3-2. This still wouldn’t be enough for the Finns as Bruno Fernandes would get his second goal of the game to make it 4-2.
A 2-2 draw would follow against Scotland, where they were competitive throughout and would go into the Nations League opening match against Greece with confidence. However, with an incredible defensive record since June 2023, Greece were dominant winners 3-0.
A tough test would follow at Wembley, Finland were competitive and had chances in the game; however, they lacked that killer finish in front of goal which England possessed, losing 2-0.
Ireland Form Guide
Ireland’s last five games would start with a poor performance at home, losing 0-1 to a strong Switzerland side. Hungary would later follow for the Irish in which they showed more attacking promise and improvement against a Hungarian side ready to compete in the Euros, winning 2-1.
Portugal would be the next task after Hungary, the Portuguese would be too strong for Ireland with a goal from João Félix and a brace from Cristiano Ronaldo.
In their last two games, Ireland would play in the Nations League in Group B. England would be the first match in their group; however, salt would be rubbed in their wounds as former Republic of Ireland internationals Declan Rice and Jack Grealish would be the scorers on this day after 26 minutes in a dominant 2-0 win for the Three Lions.
A strong Greek side would be their last competitive game in the Nations League, however Fotis Ioannidis and Christos Tzolis would be the goalscorers to win at the Aviva Stadium and continue Ireland’s poor run of results.
Finland v Ireland betting tips
While this is a tough game to call on paper since both sides are coming into this fixture in less-than-impressive form, both nations will be looking for their first points of their Nations League campaign.
Finland and Ireland have struggled in their opening two Nations League matches, losing to both Greece and England. Neither side have scored in their last two games and a tightly contested match up is expected in Helsinki on Thursday.
This fixture isn’t known for its high scoring games, with four of the seven meetings between these nations having featured two goals or fewer and less than 2.5 goals have been scored in six of their last eight meetings as well.
Ireland have lost their previous three games, with Finland also winless in their last four, with either side not being great defensively as they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their previous five. Both teams have scored in five of the last seven involving Finland – with the hosts having a slight advantage in the two previous wins over Ireland in recent meetings.
Based on previous data, there is a 70% probability that Finland will score no more than 1 goal and a 68% probability that Ireland will score no more than 1 goal from their goal scoring record in twenty previous home/away fixtures.
Finland at home have averaged 1.2 goals scored, while Ireland have averaged 1.1 goals scored away from home. In terms of goals conceding goals, Finland average 1 goal conceded per game at home while Ireland averaged 1.3 goals conceded away from home, supporting the probability this ending in a 1-1 draw.
Finland v Ireland Betting Tips
Correct score: 1-1
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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