Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Analysis: The one thing the All Blacks must achieve to beat Ireland

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Analysis: Scoreboard pressure is crucial if the All Blacks are to repeat their World Cup win over the Irish in Dublin, writes Patrick McKendry.

All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson, like many of those invested in New Zealand’s performance against England at Twickenham, appeared unable to sit during the final minutes of a cliffhanger Test — an indication of what was at stake and, to a similar extent, what had gone wrong.

Few could blame Robertson for displaying his nerves (in full view, funnily enough, of the outgoing World Rugby chairman Bill Beaumont, a former England international), as the seconds ticked down on the 24-22 victory during which Robertson had to endure the sight of replacement No.10 George Ford missing a penalty to potentially win the Test and then a dropped goal which would have iced it.

Because the plan, of course, was for the All Blacks to force England to chase the game — just as it will be for Ireland to do the same in Dublin on Saturday morning NZT.

“Scoreboard pressure” is the name of that game and the All Blacks have been able to put that strategy into effect only twice in 11 Tests this year: the revenge mission over Argentina at Eden Park and the Bledisloe Cup victory over the Wallabies in Wellington.

Actually, that’s not quite right. Robertson’s men forced Australia to chase the game in Sydney when leading 21-0 after 16 minutes and 28-14 at halftime, and the Wallabies almost got there — Damian McKenzie scoring the only points for the visitors in the second half as his side avoided what would have been a sporting catastrophe to get home 31-28.

They couldn’t do it against England in Dunedin or Auckland in July — Robertson’s men having to come from behind in both.

And while they led both Tests against the Boks in Johannesburg and Cape Town — it wasn’t by enough as the world champions overtook them in the second half of both Tests.

All of which makes the victories over the Pumas in Auckland (after the previous upset at Sky Stadium) and their second win over Australia this year an outlier both in terms of results and the case of game plans truly coming to fruition.

Those two wins were based on a ruthless attacking game and a similarly cold-eyed defence which left the opposition with too much to do which in effect is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The England victory at the weekend highlighted the All Blacks’ character and bench quality but, take the emotion out of it, and the win over Australia in the capital remains the most even performance of the year for Robertson’s men.

“We’ve been there pretty much every game this year and it’s good to get one,” Robertson told the host broadcaster at Twickenham at the weekend of his team’s come-from-behind triumph. “It will galvanise the group.”

Asked whether he enjoyed the Test, his first as All Blacks head coach at what England describes as the “home of rugby”, he replied: “I didn’t enjoy it until the last play.”

Watch Scotty Stevenson and Pat McKendry analyse the All Blacks’ ‘best 23-man Test performance of the year’ on our home for news, in-depth and consumer stories, TVNZ+.

It should never have come to that because the All Blacks outscored England three tries to one and so clearly showed a far sharper attacking edge — particularly via Wallace Sititi, Mark Tele’a, Will Jordan, and, in the first half at least, Beauden Barrett.

The visitors’ unforced errors and poor discipline almost cost them dearly — two areas in which there is obvious room for improvement.

Which leads us to the team’s next challenge against Ireland in Dublin, one that looms as an even bigger one given the six-day turnaround and the hosts’ status as the No.1 team in the world.

The All Blacks will be without hooker Codie Taylor and playmaker Beauden Barrett, two players already ruled out with head injuries, and they will be up against a team in Ireland who are extremely hard to dislodge once they take the lead.

In their last meeting — the World Cup quarter-final in Paris won 28-24 in an instant classic — the All Blacks led 18-17 at halftime and 25-17 thanks to Will Jordan’s try created in large part by the now absent Richie Mo’unga’s brilliance. Ireland maintained leads during their two previous wins over the All Blacks in New Zealand in 2022 during what was an historic series victory.

There are few better at keeping an advantage than Ireland, which means the All Blacks’ start at the Aviva Stadium will be imperative, as will be their handling of Australian referee Nic Berry.

As for personnel, loosehead prop Ethan de Groot, dropped for the England Test after a failure to adhere to what the All Blacks described as internal protocols, will presumably return to the starting line-up, which means Tamaiti Williams, impressive in the No.1 jersey against England, may replace Ofa Tu’ungafasi on the reserves bench.

Asafo Aumua at hooker and McKenzie at first-five are near certainties due to the injuries to Taylor and Barrett, but Robertson may elect to reward the rest of his starting line-up from Twickenham even despite the excellent performance off the bench from Patrick Tuipulotu.

Beauden Barrett’s absence will be a wrench because of his kicking game in particular but McKenzie is capable of playing a similarly strategic game — one that focuses on the fundamentals and less on unstructured brilliance.

Start poorly in Dublin and the All Blacks will have a difficult night indeed. Start well and Robertson may even enjoy it.

Possible All Blacks team to play Ireland

At Aviva Stadium, Dublin, on Saturday, kick-off 9.10am NZT

1. Ethan de Groot, 2. Asafo Aumua, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 4. Tupou Vaa’i, 5. Scott Barrett ©, 6. Wallace Sititi, 7. Sam Cane, 8. Ardie Savea, 9. Cortez Ratima, 10. Damian McKenzie, 11. Caleb Clarke, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Rieko Ioane, 14. Mark Tele’a, 15. Will Jordan. Reserves: 16. George Bell, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Pasilio Tosi, 19. Patrick Tuipulotu, 20. Samipeni Finau, 21. Cam Roigard, 22. Anton Lienert-Brown, 23. Harry Plummer.

Watch Scotty Stevenson and Pat McKendry analyse the All Blacks’ ‘best 23-man Test performance of the year’ on our home for news, in-depth and consumer stories, TVNZ+.

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