Cop29 begins in Azerbaijan today amid terrible uncertainty because of a disturbed and increasingly unpredictable climate and geopolitics infected by mistrust and conflict.
United Nations talks attempting to agree actions to cool the planet by cutting carbon emissions are known in UN-speak as a “conference of the parties” – commonly known as Cops. Bar a few rogue states – who may soon be joined by the US – this is where the world gathers, where the poor have the same standing as the rich.
Cops are dismissed by critics as ineffective talking shops, unwieldy and interminably slow in reaching a decision by consensus; a “circus of parties”. Yet against the odds, they frequently drive change.
Is the Paris Agreement fit for purpose?
In the room will be signatories to the Paris Agreement – almost 200 countries – a monument to collective action. It is a guiding map, reinforced by climate science, showing the way to a more benign physical world; less polluted and healthier – nature balanced with humanity.
But it is flawed. Countries have committed to hold warming to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial times and to work to limit this to 1.5 degrees. But the agreement allows each country to determine what contribution it makes to these efforts. This inevitably led to a wide gap between collective goals and national commitments. The bottom line is that the collective response is wholly inadequate given what is facing Earth.
So where are we on temperature and emissions goals?
It’s best summarised in three words: over the limit. This year is set to become the first on record when average temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees, breaching that Paris threshold – though this has to happen over years to be declared lost.
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Emissions are at unprecedented levels, especially from burning fossil fuels. Global temperatures are at their highest in human history. Like a household budget, climate science sets a carbon budget on greenhouse gases that can be “spent” (emitted) for a given level of global warming. If we exceed this budget, global temperatures will become higher. We continue to exceed that budget to an alarming extent.
Is anything helping us to get to a better place?
Many countries have pledged to reduce carbon dioxide and methane emissions, the main antagonists of warming. Added to that, a clean energy revolution is gathering pace. The single biggest way to pivot the world is to replace fossil fuels with renewables as the prime energy source. It is the quickest route to a decarbonised world. Analysis would suggest this is unstoppable, despite US president-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Why should Ireland slash emissions when we’re responsible for a tiny fraction of global output?
Ireland generates a mere 0.1 per cent of global emissions, so on the surface it’s not our problem. But for many reasons that’s not a sustainable position. As climate scientist Peter Thorne has highlighted: “Ireland has among the highest per capita greenhouse emissions in Europe.” We put a small proportion of total emissions into the atmosphere, but if every person in the globe had the historical emissions profile of Ireland, global mean temperature today would be north of 3 degrees.
In short, the world would be cooked and humanity would be lucky to survive..
We need to get a handle on this, Thorne added. “If we can’t solve these challenges, challenges on the island of Ireland, then where on Earth can? We have a highly educated population. We have, fundamentally, the capital resources. We have the nimbleness, if it is our priority to act faster.”
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What’s more, climate disruption is already on our doorstep. Intense rainfall and associated flooding may be a permanent threat to Irish food production. Ireland has continued to dodge a bullet and is overdue a storm surge several metres high; not quite of the scale that hit Spain’s Valencia region but enough to cause widespread damage. Infrastructure across the island cannot cope with the impacts of climate extremes already happening.
Continue as is and our quality of life and livelihood will be increasingly undermined. Broadening focus, it is clear in Africa and the Global South that the toll is more devastating for those who did least to cause the climate crisis.
So the climate response is an ethical/fairness issue?
Yes, and a lot more. The world cannot decarbonise with ensuring climate justice, but ultimately achieving net-zero emissions brings huge economic opportunity – notwithstanding upfront costs and rocky terrain ahead.
That transition needs to empower people, not heap blame on them. Climate guilt should rest primarily with Big Oil and carbon-polluting industries; the only individuals to be singled out are the megawealthy locked into a carry-on-regardless mode.
An Irish billionaire emits the same amount of greenhouse gases from their lavish lifestyle and fossil fuel investments in a single day as the average Irish person does in a year, accordingly to an Oxfam study. If everyone on Earth emitted planet-warming gases at the same rate as the average billionaire, the remaining carbon budget to stay within 1.5 degrees would be gone in less than two days.
So what are key agenda items at Cop29?
By some distance it is about money and resetting a climate finance goal. A target of $100 billion a year from developed countries for vulnerable countries is in place. Remarkably, there is broad agreement this should scale to trillions but gaping differences over who should pay, how much and sources of finance.
The EU is pushing for much more diversified funding sources, including private finance. What constitutes a rich country is also contested. A 1992 list doesn’t include China and many wealthy petrostates despite their economic might after decades of growth.
Setting out a credible path towards that target will be key to building trust. Ireland’s Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan has been asked to play a lead role on adaptation measures to build climate resilience in developing countries.
Again, this will require money on the table but also, as he sees it, a better way of addressing climate and development. A good outcome at Cop29 could provide momentum on overall negotiations and progress parts of the Paris Agreement to ensure meaningful carbon trading and transparency on credits.
With Trump likely to pull out of the Paris pact again, does that make Cop29 largely irrelevant?
World leaders from almost 100 countries are gathered in Baku and Trump will be the main conversation topic. The US – the country responsible for most emissions historically and currently the world’s second-largest emitter – is walking away from its responsibilities. It risks heightening fear about inevitable emission impacts in coming years as Trump ratchets up oil and gas production. This may translate into paralysis that scuppers Cop29.
[ Donald Trump’s return is a blow to global response to the climate crisisOpens in new window ]
In the past alliances of more ambitious countries formed during Cops and helped forge strong outcomes against the odds, often with unlikely partners. But big economic blocs the EU and China will have to provide leadership and drive the process on this occasion in spite of what has been described as the “Trump whiplash” looming over the talks.
With so many countries gathered around the Cop table, surely Ireland has minimal impact?
This is far from the case. Ireland has an excellent record in international diplomacy and especially development, in how it supports poorer countries and its presence on the ground. Ireland’s negotiating team in recent Cops has played an important role, especially in securing a landmark loss-and-damage fund. “Ireland’s position can be a bridging position between the Global North and the Global South,” Ryan told a pre-Cop29 briefing.
What’s the best that can be hoped for?
Some will adopt a nihilistic view and declare the 1.5-degree target dead in the water. The evidence suggests, however, the world is a different place since Trump was first elected in 2016, and a green economic race, rather than politics, is driving decarbonisation. Leaders of this transition need to reunite parties under the Paris Agreement, while increasing ambition and accelerating actions, for Cop29 to be declared a success.