First preference vote shares in Ireland’s election suggest that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are poised to continue their coalition, with Sinn Fein recording its first decline in support in 35 years.
Since the foundation of the Irish state, at least one of Fianna Fail or Fine Gael has consistently been in power, and early results indicate this is unlikely to change. However, their combined vote share has declined for the fourth consecutive general election and is now at a record low.
The main opposition has performed even worse. At the 2020 election, Sinn Fein benefited most from the drop in support for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, topping the poll for the first time with 24.5% of first-preference votes.
Four years on, despite being in opposition to a relatively unpopular government, the party’s vote share has fallen for the first time in 35 years – down 5.5 percentage points to 19%. That’s the largest fall for any party at this election.
The smaller parties and Independents have profited making gains throughout the country. These parties encompass both sides of the political spectrum, indicating no clear pattern of votes shifting distinctly to the left or right.
One exception is the Greens who are seemingly paying a price for their supporting role in the previous coalition. Their vote share is down 4.1 points to 3% and they are now expected to lose most, if not all, their 12 seats.
Junior coalition partners often pay a heavy price in subsequent elections – Labour, for instance, lost 30 seats in 2011 after their last stint in government.
This means, should Fianna Fail and Fine Gael fall short of the 88 seats needed to govern, they’ll have to look to other parties and Independents to make up the numbers for a majority.
The Social Democrats and Labour are potential options, with both improving on their 2020 showing. But, with some predictions suggesting the two main parties could post a combined total in the region of 85 seats, they might only need to persuade a few Independents to join them.
Voter turnout hit a record low of 59.7%, with two in five choosing not to cast a ballot. Still, Ireland appears poised to re-elect the same government. This suggests that while voters may be disillusioned with the current leadership, they lack confidence in the main opposition parties to address their challenges.
Issues facing next government
Sinn Fein’s losses will have pleased the coalition, but the exit poll suggests they made significant gains among voters aged 25-34. This shift is likely tied to the housing crisis, a pressing issue for this age group as they face challenges in finding affordable homes.
Housing/homelessness was the most important issue for voters in the exit poll and is likely to dominate the agenda for the next government. Since 2015, house prices have risen 92% and figures released on polling day revealed a record 14,966 people living in emergency accommodation.
The coalition has consistently failed to meet its social housing construction targets, yet Sinn Fein has struggled to capitalise on this poor record.
Many commentators attributed Sinn Fein’s poor pre-election polling performance to their mixed messaging on immigration. However, immigration ranked low among the issues voters said were key to deciding their vote, and candidates with strong anti-immigration platforms received little support.
The exit poll did suggest though that the cost-of-living crisis was the second most pressing issue for voters. This could explain why many have shifted away from Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein, opting instead for smaller parties and Independents. With Ireland’s price levels being the second highest in the EU, the coalition is unlikely to regain support unless this trend is addressed.