Weather models indicating Ireland’s first major cold snap and snowfall of winter are becoming “more clearcut” as forecasters try to predict where and how much snow will fall.
Met Éireann has already issued a weather advisory for the entire country running right through to next Saturday, November 23.
In that advisory, they say: “A transition to significantly colder conditions will take place from Monday, November 18, lasting through much of the week.
“Wintry hazards including frost and ice are likely with potential for sleet, snow and hail for some,” they added.
Cathal Nolan from Ireland’s Weather Channel has also been watching the weather models to get a clearer picture on the wintry outlook.
In an update on Sunday morning, he said: “The real question is, will all snow lovers be celebrating a positive result on Monday night? The question for some I believe will be yes. Let’s take a look at some of this morning’s model runs and what we can see is a more clear cut picture is becoming establish, similar to our own chart yesterday.
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“As that low pressure deepens on approach it will begin to draw down some of that colder arctic air, turning any rain or sleet to snow, especially so for areas in the northwest and boarder counties where the highest snowfall accumulations are projected, as indicated below.
“Now, what the higher resolution models show us is areas with a little elevation, say 150metres and above, are more favoured for appreciable snowfalls, whereas elsewhere it’s more so just a dusting of snow that’s possible. On higher ground still there are some really impressive totals possible.
“Based on such past events I believe that the models are a little slow to pick up on the evaporative cooling effect of zero isothermal layers and as such this could well pull down the snow line in some areas to ground level, possibly leading to higher accumulations for some here too.
“In the northwest and border region 1-3cm of snow could fall anywhere, but especially above 150m, meanwhile above 200m totals of between 3-10cm are possible, and on the highest peaks in these areas totals of up to 15cm seem likely, that’s half a foot of snow falling over 500m.
“Finally, just a word of advice for motorists, journeys are unlikely to be impacted during typical business hours, with the risk of snow in the northwest not likely until after 5pm. Of greater concern will be the ice on Tuesday morning as all that rain, sleet and snow will freeze on Monday night with untreated surfaces becoming a veritable skating rink.”
Met Éireann’s Monday forecast says it will be “mostly cloudy” to start “with outbreaks of rain across the south and west, becoming widespread in the afternoon. The rain will be heavy at times with potential for spot flooding and may turn to sleet and snow in Ulster towards evening with accumulations possible, mainly on northern hills. Afternoon highs of 3 to 7 degrees generally, but 8 to 11 degrees in the southwest. Light to moderate cyclonic variable winds, will increase fresh to strong and gusty near western and southern coasts.
“Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow will gradually clear eastwards on Monday night with cold clear spells following. It’ll turn cold with frost and ice forming as temperatures fall back to between -2 and +2 degrees, although it will be a touch milder in coastal fringes and across southwest Munster with lows of 3 to 7 degrees in these parts. Winds will become mainly northerly, decreasing light to moderate. A few showers, some of them wintry, will feed into the north and west towards dawn,” the Met Éireann update continued.
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“Any remaining rain in the east and southeast will clear on Tuesday morning, giving way to sunny spells. Scattered showers will mainly affect the north and west, where they will fall as a mix of rain, hail, sleet and snow. Some accumulations will occur, especially over the hills, but not exclusively. Afternoon highs of 3 to 6 degrees. Light to moderate north to northwest or variable breezes, will be fresh at times along eastern and northern coasts.
“Showers, some of them wintry, will continue to feed in across western and northern parts [on Tuesday night]. It will be mainly dry elsewhere with a mix of cloud and clear breaks. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +2 degrees with frost and icy patches. Light to moderate northwest breezes will be fresh at times near eastern and northern coasts.
“Frost and ice will be slow to thaw, perhaps lingering all day [Wednesday] in sheltered spots. It will be another day with a mix of sunshine and showers, some of them wintry. The showers will again be largely confined to the north and west but a few may spread elsewhere. Afternoon highs of 3 to 5 degrees generally, a degree or two higher in Atlantic coastal fringes. Light to moderate northwest to variable winds will be fresh and gusty along eastern and northern coasts with a noticeable wind chill factor in these parts.
“Dry and clear in many parts but scattered showers will continue in parts of the west and north [on Wednesday night]. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +1 degrees with frost and icy patches in mainly light to moderate northwest or variable breezes.
“Frost and ice will again be slow to thaw, perhaps lingering all day in some parts [again on Thursday]. Many areas will be dry and cold with spells of sunshine but scattered showers of rain, hail, sleet and snow will affect western and northern parts. Afternoon highs of 2 to 4 degrees generally, but a degree or two higher in Atlantic coastal fringes. Mostly moderate northwest winds will be fresh at times near coasts.
“Many areas dry with clear spells [on Thursday night]. Scattered wintry showers will continue to affect mainly the west and north, with a few spreading elsewhere. Lowest temperatures of -2 to +2 degrees with frost and icy patches. Light to moderate westerly winds, fresh at times on eastern and northern coasts.
“Current indications suggest a cloudier day [on Friday] with showers in the west turning to rain later in the day. Afternoon highs of 2 to 6 degrees, a degree or two higher in coastal fringes of the south and west. Light to moderate southwest breezes.”
Met Éireann concludes its latest forecast by saying: “Confidence in the forecast decreases markedly for Friday night and next weekend. There could be quite an abrupt change to milder, wetter and windier conditions but there is also a chance that the cold snap could endure.”