SOUTH BEND, Ind. — You’ve probably heard the news by now: Notre Dame debuted at No. 10 in the first College Football Playoff rankings.
Same as it ever was.
That’s exactly where the Irish were slotted in the first CFP rankings 10 years ago, back when Mississippi State was the No. 1 team in the country and defending champion Florida State was No. 2. If only that kind of Seminoles team was coming to South Bend this weekend, the Irish might get the kind of resume boost they need to host a first-round game in December.
As of today, No. 10 Notre Dame is heading to No. 7 Penn State to open the postseason, with a second-round date with No. 2 Georgia in the quarterfinals. It goes without saying that all of this will change — just ask Mississippi State — between now and the end of the season. The eventual national champion that year was Ohio State, which was ranked No. 16 in the first CFP Top 25. (Maybe that’s good news for Ole Miss?)
For Notre Dame, the position is clear. Win out and (almost certainly) get in. There’s a good chance the Irish will even be hosting. Of course, you’ve got a question about what could go wrong in that CFP world. But you also want to know about where the offense goes from here, if the Irish really have more depth than they did under Brian Kelly and what the roster might look like in 2025.
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Let’s get to the mailbag.
Could a one-loss Notre Dame miss the Playoff this year? What has to happen with other teams for that nightmare scenario to play out? — Michael R.
This would require a royal flush of results that make for a very lucrative parlay. But because you asked, here’s the gruesome scenario that would bump out Notre Dame from the College Football Playoff, even at 11-1.
It’s probably easiest to go conference-by-conference into this very dark place.
SEC (4 bids): Tennessee wins out, meaning it upsets Georgia on Nov. 16. Alabama wins out, knocking off LSU on Saturday night. Texas wins out, which means it beats Texas A&M in College Station. Texas wins the SEC championship over Tennessee to get the automatic bid. Two-loss Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama stay ranked ahead of Notre Dame after splitting games against one another in some combination.
ACC (2 bids): Undefeated Miami and one-loss SMU meet in the ACC championship game. The Mustangs upset the Hurricanes, meaning SMU gets the automatic bid and Miami stays in front of Notre Dame.
Big Ten (4 bids): Penn State wins out but doesn’t make the Big Ten championship game, maintaining its lead on Notre Dame. Indiana loses a classic in Columbus with everyone watching, impressing enough to stay ahead of Notre Dame despite a poor schedule. Oregon and Ohio State meet for the Big Ten championship. The winner is No. 1 overall, the loser gets the No. 5 seed.
That leaves the remaining two slots for the Big 12 champion and the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. Right now that’s BYU and Boise State.
To be clear, it’s worth waiting a week on this. College football has a way of working itself out … like Georgia Tech upsetting Miami, Indiana losing to Michigan or Penn State falling at home to Washington. If just one of those things happens on Saturday, it would all but squash this royal flush.
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Depth seems to be at a place it never was under Brian Kelly. Notre Dame is playing backups and freshmen in prominent roles along the offensive line, defensive line and at cornerback, yet the defense is top-five nationally and the offense is hitting its stride. Do you attribute this to getting better recruits in the bottom half of each recruiting class, better coaching or something else that’s going on behind the scenes? — Tom N.
I think the answers are staring us in the face: the transfer portal and COVID-19 exemptions.
(Here’s where some of you might launch into a defense of Marcus Freeman’s recruiting being superior to recruiting under Kelly. No need. I agree. Recruiting has ticked up under Freeman compared to Kelly, even if the jump has not been seismic in terms of the Recruiting Rankings Industrial Complex.)
How would you rate Notre Dame’s depth without Riley Leonard, Jordan Clark, Rod Heard II, RJ Oben, Beaux Collins, Kris Mitchell, Jayden Harrison and Mitch Jeter? They haven’t all been hits, but Notre Dame’s portal recruiting has clicked at a much higher percentage than its high school recruiting. It’s easier to have good depth when you’re able to fill in holes with college players on the open market. Credit Notre Dame for being smart about how it’s invested.
On top of being good in the portal, Notre Dame has been able to retain talent beyond normal eligibility limits. Under normal circumstances, this roster doesn’t have Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills, Howard Cross III, Xavier Watts or Jordan Botelho on it. Again, credit for Notre Dame working to get all five back, especially the first four. All had legitimate NFL decisions and Notre Dame made returning make sense.
None of this means Notre Dame doesn’t have great depth. But Kelly never had a shot to have this kind of roster. He got three or four incoming transfers each year, but there was no wiggle room outside of graduate transfers. And there was no NIL help to close the deal.
Freeman has talked repeatedly about “majoring in high school recruiting” which remains smart business. You can find good players in the transfer portal, but you’re not going to get Benjamin Morrison, Joe Alt, Blake Fisher, Michael Mayer or Kyle Hamilton there. That kind of talent requires recruitment and development. We’ll see if the “back half” of Freeman’s classes out-perform what Kelly signed. Ian Book, Jalen Elliott, Ade Ogundeji and Julian Love were all three-star prospects from the 2016 class. Cam Hart and Marist Liufau were three-stars in the 247Sports Composite in the 2019 haul. It’s too soon to know if this year’s freshman class — Anthonie Knapp and Leonard Moore — will surpass some of the better Kelly hauls.
But it’s clear that overall roster management is in a very healthy place under Freeman. Some of that is recruiting. But a lot of that is portal acquisitions and maximizing that extra year of eligibility.
Notre Dame ranks 18th in the FBS in points per game. (Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)
Seeing the offense improve since start of the season has been exciting, and I can’t wait to see how good they get over the last four games. Over/under 120 points scored in the final four games? — Michael R.
Over. You can hold me to that.
Notre Dame’s offense has taken off during the past four games, beating the scoring defense averages of Stanford, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Navy by an average of two touchdowns. If Notre Dame kept up that scoring pace against Florida State, Virginia, Army and USC — meaning it also beat those teams’ scoring defense averages by two touchdowns — it means Notre Dame would average 36.5 points in November.
That’s 146 points.
What offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has done with the offense since bombing against Northern Illinois has been impressive but hardly shocking. He said in the preseason that the offense wouldn’t be ready out of the box and Leonard would need time to learn the offense, just like Jayden Daniels did in his first season at LSU.
And guess what happened? Exactly what Denbrock predicted.
While that’s not an excuse for losing to Northern Illinois, the offense sputtering before clicking into gear is something we should have seen coming. Because Denbrock basically told us it would happen.
If Louisville doesn’t hang on and finish in the Top 25, Miami’s regular-season schedule won’t feature a single ranked opponent, yet I don’t hear as much media bellyaching about this compared to Notre Dame’s schedule. This, coupled with the fact Miami asked out of the Notre Dame game for 2024 seems to be forgettable to everyone outside of ND fandom and The Athletic. My question is why is Miami’s schedule above criticism? — D.E.
If Miami loses, you’ll hear it. When you’re still undefeated, you don’t.
I don’t have an issue with Miami being ranked No. 4 in the first CFP rankings (No. 3 in the bracket by way of being a conference champion). However, if the Hurricanes lose any of their three remaining regular-season games (at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, at Syracuse), then Miami should drop to the back of the one-loss contender pack immediately.
Of course, an 11-1 Miami would still have a path to a top-four seed via the ACC championship game, likely against SMU.
Also, if Louisville doesn’t hang in the Top 25, Notre Dame might be looking at a schedule with just one ranked win.
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The second bye week comes with conversations about returning for fifth/sixth seasons. Who are the most important targets? — James R.
I’d put the candidates into three groups.
The must-haves: defensive end Jordan Botelho, defensive tackle Gabriel Rubio, defensive tackle Jason Onye and wide receiver Jayden Thomas. Bringing back Onye assumes the personal reasons that have sidelined him since mid-October are resolved. But if Onye can return to the team — Freeman said he’d welcome him back — he’s probably a starter next to Rubio. The Irish won’t be nearly as good at that position next season and would still need to get into the transfer portal to find help, even with Rubio and Onye. But getting this tandem into next season’s lineup would be a critical bit of roster building. If Botelho makes a full recovery, he probably rotates with Boubacar Traore, who’s also coming off a torn ACL. Thomas gives the receiving corps a reliable WR2 when healthy. These are all no-brainers.
The want-backs: Offensive linemen Pat Coogan and Rocco Spindler returning might require some creative recruiting because it’s not certain either would be a starter next season. But could Coogan start the opener at Miami with Ashton Craig less than a year removed from his ACL tear? Sure. Spindler? That’s harder to say assuming the Irish don’t get wrecked by preseason injuries. He could compete for a starting job and Notre Dame would love the quality depth — it’s just not clear how Spindler would receive it.
The wild cards: quarterback Steve Angeli, defensive end Junior Tuihalamaka, linebacker Jaylen Sneed, tight end Kevin Bauman, quarterback/receiver Tyler Buchner. There are more who fit this category considering everybody is a free agent every offseason. But if we’re talking veteran players who haven’t played a lot who want to play more, this group stands out. Sneed has been the fifth linebacker in a five-man rotation and would likely be fourth next year. Angeli has waited four years to play; would he stay to compete or depart to start? Tuihalamaka looked like an almost certain departure in mid-September. Now he’s a quality defensive end at a position short on numbers. Bauman might not rise above a backup, but tight end is a car crash position in terms of injuries. If Bauman wants to stay, there’s value there. And Buchner, assuming Notre Dame put him back in the quarterback room, might be a value-add if the position turns over this winter.
It feels like Notre Dame will have a less impactful group of fifth-year seniors next season on paper. Then again, the hole at defensive tackle would be massive (and expensive) without Rubio and Onye
Do you think the capacity of Notre Dame Stadium and/or December weather will factor into the committee’s seeding hosts versus visitors? — Paul S.
No.
As much as college football leadership can feel stuck on revenue generation, one of the entire points of the expanded College Football Playoff was access. If that means Notre Dame is hosting in a stadium slightly smaller and a lot colder than some of the other contenders, bring on Touchdown Jesus in a snowstorm.
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(Top photo: Edward Diller / Getty Images)