Right here, right now. Without being too dramatic this is probably one of Ireland’s last two chances to pick up a point in this version of the Nations League. Heimer Hallgrimsson’s lads head into Finland v Ireland pointless, just like their hosts, in a battle for the wooden spoon in League B: Group 2.
Who’s coming out on top? Well, our tipster Shane O’Brien swerved picking a winner – probably out of pure patriotism – but here’s his Bet Builder for Thursday night’s international action.
Finland v Ireland tips
Under 1.5 goals
Jayson Molumby to commit 2+ fouls
Over 8.5 corners
Adam Idah to have 1+ shots on target
Ireland goalkeeper to make 3+ saves
WHEN: Thursday 10th October, 7.45pm
WHERE: Helsinki Olympic Stadium
TV: RTE2
Under 1.5 goals
Ireland’s statistics in the Nations League since the competition’s inception make for particularly grim reading. In 16 games Ireland have won just twice, scoring 10 but failing to bag in 10 of their 16 matches to date.
Both Ireland and Finland have failed to score in this campaign so far and appear to be locked in a battle to avoid last place and automatic relegation to League C, although Finland have played both of their games away from home, while both of Ireland’s two defeats came at the Aviva Stadium.
Despite that tricky start, however, Finland have not exactly been world beaters in 2024, winning just one of their six games in the year to date – a 2-1 friendly victory over Estonia back in March. Both sides are short on confidence and short on goals, pointing towards a low-scoring affair in Helsinki on Thursday night.
Finland beat Ireland 1-0 home and away when the sides met in the 2020 Nations League campaign and a similar scoreline would be far from surprising.
Jayson Molumby to commit two or more fouls
If anything underlines Jayson Molumby’s tendency to be a bit over-zealous, it was his bizarre sending off for West Brom for punching and headbutting Samu Costa in a pre-season friendly against Mallorca. He has never been shy of committing a foul or two and is arguably the most likely player in either squad to commit multiple fouls.
He has averaged around one foul per game in the Championship so far this season – the fifth-highest average in the West Brom squad. There is every chance Ireland will commit a high number of fouls too.
Heimer Hallgrimsson’s first two games in charge have seen Ireland average just 37% possession and commit an average of around 15 fouls per game, by far the highest in Group B2. Ireland are likely to be without the ball, resulting in a high foul count and giving Molumby every chance of racking up at least two fouls on the night.
Over 8.5 corners
Finland and Ireland have managed just seven corners between them in the four games they have played so far in this Nations League campaign, with neither side managing more than two corners in any one game. However, the match represents a huge opportunity for both sides to get their campaign off and running and are likely to be more on the front foot than they were in any of their games to date.
Much has obviously changed since the sides met way back in 2020, but they did share 17 corners across two games for an average of 8.5 per game. The two sides unsurprisingly rank lowest in Group B2 in terms of shots per game but will both look to improve those averages, which should cause their corner counts to rise considerably.
Adam Idah to have 1+ shots on target
Adam Idah barely had a shot in anger in his two Nations League appearances to date but is undeniably one of the form players in an Irish side that badly lacks players in any sort of form. Idah has scored four times for Celtic since the last international break, including his first-ever Champions League goal in the 5-1 win over Slovan Bratislava on September 18.
He has been averaging a shot per game for Brendan Rodgers’ side this season and is decent value to find the target at least once. Finland have faced an average of over 15 shots per game in the Nations League to date and, while Ireland’s attack is nowhere near the levels of the English or Greek attack, they should get chances.
Ireland goalkeeper to make 3+ saves
Ireland’s defence is hardly much better than Finland’s. Hallgrimsson’s side have faced 13 shots per game in their two Nations League games to date despite playing both at home.
In the four friendlies Ireland played in 2024 before Hallgrimsson was appointed manager, they faced 49 shots on goal and 20 shots on target for an average of over 12 shots game and five shots on target.
Finland, playing at home with their backs against the wall, are likely to take the game to Ireland and it could be a busy night for Caoimhin Kelleher or whoever starts in the Irish goal.
Finland v Ireland betting tips
Under 1.5 goals
Jayson Molumby to commit two or more fouls
Over 8.5 corners
Adam Idah to have one or more shots on target
Ireland goalkeeper to make three or more saves
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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