For a body with such clout and wealth, Fifa appear intent on testing the patience and credulity of anyone who cares, really cares, about the game of football.
On the eve of today’s draw for the qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup finals, Fifa were practically breathless in excitement when naming the “legendary quintet” who would assist at the draw in Zurich: Fernando Llorente, Gianluca Zambrotta, Robert Pires, Ariane Hingst and Rachel Yankey.
Bar former England player Yankey, all of them have a World Cup winner’s medal, but the “legendary” bit is stretching things. But that’s what Fifa have done, not just this week with the embarrassment of the process to award the 2034 World Cup, unopposed, to Saudi Arabia, but the very draw itself, which effectively takes place behind closed doors.
No press conference, no opportunity to grill Gianni Infantino about just how the Saudis were handed the World Cup in spite of a series of damning reports about human rights, treatment of workers and the safety of members of the LGBTQ+ community while in the country.
Heimir Hallgrimsson was effectively forced by Uefa to travel to their HQ in Nyon for the non-event of a draw for the Nations League relegation play-off. Now, for the much more important World Cup qualifiers, he will be in Dublin, watching proceedings from his office at Abbotstown and then conducting his media engagements in person.
Fifa have yet to explain fully why managers and other delegation officials were not asked to attend the World Cup draw in Zurich, so soon after Uefa press-ganged national team bosses to fly to Nyon, but a lack of media on site absolves people like Infantino from taking questions about the farce that is the Saudi World Cup bid.
And a last-minute tweak to the format has added intrigue for Ireland with a guaranteed four-team group no longer in place. So, Hallgrimsson’s men might be drawn in a five-team group, which is less than ideal.
When is the draw on?
The draw starts at 11am today. Thankfully, this is only the Uefa section of the World Cup draw, so the wait won’t be a long one for Irish fans keen to discover our rivals next year.
Where will Ireland be?
The third seeds so in Pot 3.
How many teams qualify for the 2026 World Cup?
Adding three sides to the European section means 16 national teams from Uefa will get to the finals.
So, a handy route then for lesser lights like Ireland?
Not really. Only the 12 group winners qualify automatically. The 12 runners-up go into a 16-team play-off in March 2026 along with four Nations League sides.
What are Ireland’s chances?
A world ranking of 60th has Ireland rated 28th of the European teams. To at least finish in the top two in the group and effectively move up 12 places in the space of one campaign looks a very big ask. Assuming the current top 12 in Europe win their groups, Ireland would have to do better than the likes of Sweden, Poland, Greece and Serbia.
But at least they have the luxury of being in a four-team group, which offers better odds for qualification and one less trip?
That was the plan. But as they have done with the behind-closed-doors element of the draw, Fifa have thrown a spanner in the works. That late change was made to suit teams in the Nations League play-offs. The FAI and Hallgrimsson had been working off the basis of being guaranteed to be in a four-team group, a consequence of being involved in a March play-off in the Nations League, with June 2025 left free for friendly games and a badly-needed training camp before the qualifiers in September, October and November of next year.
It emerged, only days ago, that the plan had changed and Ireland can now potentially be in a five-team group after all. The chances of that are low but hinge on what group England and Switzerland are drawn in. If the English or Swiss are put into a four-team group, Ireland cannot be in one made up of five sides. If England/Switzerland get a five-team group, that could include Ireland.
So, who could Ireland get in a Group of Death scenario?
Most (in fact all) of the teams in Pot 1 would pose a serious threat. In football terms, the worst possible draw would be Italy or Spain, one of Greece/Ukraine/Slovakia, Bulgaria. If we are in a five-team group, Malta.
Is there a kind draw?
Germany aside, Austria are the only team in pot 1 who have been beaten by Ireland in a qualifier in the last 20 years, so could be vulnerable. A strong Ireland side could also at least give a game to Norway, Estonia and, if it’s a five-team group, Andorra.
What about the sunny days draw: football aside, what group would fans hope for?
Italy and Portugal are always attractive for an away day, but many supporters would relish a first trip to Croatia since 1999, especially if the Croatian FA opt to host the game not in Zagreb but, as they’ve done of late, in the vibrant coastal city of Split. The charms of Athens may be exhausted by Irish fans at this stage.
Travel-wise, Pot 2 could throw up Czechia and a return to Prague, while Pot 4 could offer a sun holiday (Cyprus) or a magnet for a city break (Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania). From Pot 5, only Malta holds holiday appeal.
What about the Group of Boredom?
Ireland have had too many dull and dreary games in recent campaigns against Denmark (Pot 1), Wales (Pot 3), Luxembourg (Pot 4) and Gibraltar (Pot 5), so hopefully none of them. If Ireland get them all, it’s just adding to the misery, but at least we can’t play Georgia or Scotland.
Are there any draws with potential security or political problems?
Well, a battle with England over two legs would stir up old grievances and rows and inevitable Uefa fines for booing of anthems. A draw with Ukraine (Pot 2) would mean an away game in neutral territory. Drawing Belarus from Pot 4 would pose the issue of having a Kremlin ally in Dublin, to the discomfort of the Ukrainian community in Ireland.
Get all the updates as Ireland learn their World Cup qualification group
