The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) has confirmed a summer cap of 25.2 million seats at Dublin Airport in line with its previous draft submission.
This decision makes Summer 2025 the second scheduling season to take account of the An Bord Pleanála 32m passenger cap. A cap of 4.1 million seats is in place for this winter.
The decisions will result in a total seat capacity of 39.6 million across the two seasons. The seat cap is greater than the passenger cap as it takes account of expected load factors and an adjustment for transfer passengers.
Airlines have warned that a cap will result in fewer routes from Dublin and higher fares.
“To take account of the capacity constraint represented by the planning condition set by An Bord Pleanála, the IAA has set a seat capacity limit of 25.2 million seats for the Summer 2025 scheduling season,” the IAA said in a statement.
“This is in line with what the IAA proposed in its Draft Decision and the proposal put forward by Daa, the operator of Dublin Airport, during the deliberations of the coordination committee, in which Daa also stated that the IAA should have regard to the condition.”
Speaking last week, Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary said the issue of the passenger cap at Dublin Airport will probably end up before a European court if Transport Minister Eamon Ryan does not move to circumvent the restriction soon.
The airline has already had to move a number of extra ad-hoc flights from Dublin to Belfast due to the imposed cap. These extra flights include Christmas flights to Lapland as well as flights for the Leinster rugby team to travel for their away fixtures.
Mr O’Leary called the situation “bizarre” and that Mr Ryan could address the cap by directing the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) to ignore it and issue more flight slots at Dublin Airport.
To that effect, Ryanair has drafted a letter for Mr Ryan to sign which would direct the IAA to disregard the cap.
Aer Lingus said it does not agree with the IAA’s conclusion. “Aer Lingus has already challenged IAA’s previous decision relating to winter 2024 capacity at Dublin Airport by way of a judicial review and a hearing is due to take place in December,” the airline said in a statement. “Aer Lingus is continuing to assess both the potential impact on its operations of the IAA’s decision reducing capacity for summer 2025 and its legal options regarding that reduction.”
In their statement, the IAA said they anticipate that the demand for slots for the Summer 2025 scheduling significantly exceed the 25.2m seat cap. “In line with the Slot Regulation, air carriers who have operated series of slots (5 weeks or longer) in the Summer 2024 season will be given priority, on initial coordination, in relation to those series for Summer 2025.”
“However, the IAA anticipates that not all slot series from Summer 2024 will be capable of being accommodated within the seat cap,” the IAA said.
They also said that similar to the Winter 2024 season, the cap will result in very little, if any, available capacity for new slot requests, or for ad hoc slot requests, for passenger flights using Terminal 1 or Terminal 2 during the Summer 2025 scheduling season.
“Such an outcome, and its implications for airlines, Dublin Airport and the travelling public are a consequence of the An Bord Pleanála planning condition itself,” the IAA said.
Operators of Dublin Airport, the Daa said they have done everything they can to dampen demand and have asked the High Court to review the IAA’s winter slot decision to avoid Dublin Airport exceeding the 32 million cap.
“Today’s announcement means we should be in a position to comply in 2025, which is to be welcomed. However, a million seats coming out next year has real financial consequences for Ireland. We estimate the damage to the economy to be at least €500m, increasing to €700m if we consider lost airfares too,” Daa CEO Kenny Jacobs said.
“This issue is no longer just an airport or a planning issue, it is now an Ireland issue. Lifting the passenger cap to 40 million passengers a year is in line with national aviation policy, the Fingal Development Plan and the Dublin Airport Local Area Plan. But while we wait for planning permission for this, we support the IAA’s decision to cut seats despite the consequences for Ireland.”