The Nations League returns to Dublin on Saturday evening with Ireland hosting an England side managed by a former Irish player. Who is English.
Got it? Good. Our football tipster Andrew Beasley isn’t putting his feet up for the international break, and has five picks in his Ireland v England betting tips for Saturday’s ‘derby’ clash.
Ireland v England betting tips
England to win
Both teams to score, no
Harry Kane to score
Under 8,5 corners
Over 4.5 cards
WHEN: Saturday, 7th of September – 17:00
WHERE: The Aviva Stadium, Dublin
TV: ITV, RTE 2
International football is a rollercoaster. You’ve just got to ride it. The last time England were playing, they were about five minutes from reaching extra-time in the final of the European Championship.
Yet two months later, here they are in League B of the UEFA Nations League. Still, at least they won a few matches in Germany. Republic of Ireland didn’t qualify for Euro 2024 and have won just two of their 10 games last season.
England to win
This is a derby, though, and one which has provided many close matches over the years. To add a little extra spice, England’s temporary boss is Lee Carsley, who won 40 caps for Ireland between 1997 and 2008.
The teams didn’t meet during his time as an international, but he will know all about the history.
The last meeting took place behind closed doors, and England won 3-0 at a deserted Wembley. Before that, there had been five draws (plus an abandoned match) and a famous win for the Republic of Ireland at Euro ’88.
Not since 1985 have England won this matchup in front of fans, and not since 1964 have they won in Ireland. Even though they were poor for much of the summer, you must assume they’ll win on Friday with the quality they have, though.
Ireland’s only victory over a country bigger than Gibraltar last season needed a 92nd-minute goal against a Hungary side who were saving themselves for the Euros. New manager Heimir Hallgrimsson famously led Iceland to a victory over England eight years ago, but it will be a tall order for him to repeat that trick here.
Under Gareth Southgate, the Three Lions played 21 competitive matches against nations ranked 58th, Ireland’s current standing, or lower, and won 18 of them, drawing the other three. England to Win, sorry, Paddy.
Both teams to score, no
The big problem for Hallgrimson is that he is inheriting a side that struggles to score goals. Seven of the nine Ireland bagged in eight qualifying matches for Euro 2024 came against the Gibraltarians.
Against France and Netherlands, two countries of similar standard to what they will face here, there was just one goal which came from the penalty spot.
England had a strong record against countries of Ireland’s level or worse in the Southgate era because they offered them few opportunities.
Across the aforementioned 21 games, the defence conceded just six goals in total – three of which came in a crazy game against Kosovo – and an average of just 4.3 shots per match. It’s Ireland to draw a blank and a ‘no’ selection in the Both Teams to Score market.
Harry Kane to score
It will be interesting to see if Carsley shakes things up with the English starting XI at the Aviva Stadium.
Of players selected in the squad, Noni Madueke is the top-scoring Englishman from Europe’s top five leagues this season. The Chelsea winger is also Carsley’s joint-second top goal-getter with England’s under-21s, so they will have a good relationship.
It’s hard to look past Harry Kane, though, isn’t it? He has played three games for Bayern Munich in all competitions this term, scoring in two and assisting in the other. Kane also scored in 14 of his 15 starts for Southgate against teams of Ireland’s ranking or lower, so he should net here.
Under 8.5 corners
We don’t usually see many corners in away England games. The last 20 have seen an average of 7.2, with only three of the games hitting double figures. The seven against teams below the boys in green in the rankings saw just six per game.
There were 11 and 10 in Ireland’s home games with Netherlands and France, respectively last year, so the total could be a little higher here.
But with England likely to dictate proceedings and usually light on corners, take the under 8.5 corners option for your Bet Builder.
Over 4.5 cards
Ireland’s matches on their own patch tend to see plenty of bookings. There were five in the home game against France, six against the Netherlands.
If that’s not enough, Armenia picked up two red cards in the last Nations League game at the Aviva. For a derby comparison, there were eight cards in Scotland versus Ireland, though only three when the Irish hosted the Scots.
England’s games against sides outside the top 50 in the rankings tend to be card-heavy too. There has been an average of 4.1 bookings across the last 13 such matches, with only one of them seeing fewer than three cards.
Man in the middle, Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, doesn’t go mad with cards, averaging 3.3 per game in the Nations League. But with the records of the two teams and the derby factor, it makes sense to go for Over 4.5 Cards.
England to win
Both teams to score, no
Harry Kane to score
Under 8,5 corners
Over 4.5 cards
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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