Multiple prominent teams around the nation are sweating their College Football Playoff fate as the 2024 regular season draws to a close. For those on the bubble, there’s only one guaranteed game left to leave an impression.
Then there are the programs that feel like a virtual lock. A 12-team field does provide some margin for error, at least, especially in a year as chaotic as this one.
Notre Dame is one of those schools that has quietly worked its way back into a prime position. Many were quick to count the Fighting Irish out after a disastrous early season loss to Northern Illinois, which still stands as arguably the biggest upset of the entire year.
That must have lit a considerable blaze under coach Marcus Freeman and his program. Notre Dame has been one of the most dominant teams in the sport over the last couple of months. Eight of their nine wins since Sept. 7 have come by two possessions.
The Irish are riding a nine-game winning streak (tied for second-longest in the FBS) with an average margin of victory of 32.6 points per game. That includes two ranked wins against Army and Navy, and one quietly strong résumé-builder against a Georgia Tech team that beat Miami. Notre Dame currently leads the FBS with a +301 point differential on the year with the No. 10 strength of record, according to ESPN’s FPI metric.
Thanks to some major shuffling in Week 13 — notably Indiana‘s loss to Ohio State — Notre Dame will almost certainly be a top-five team in Tuesday’s latest round of College Football Playoff Rankings. All that stands between the Irish and their third playoff appearance is a 6-5 USC team.
But does the result of Saturday’s rivalry game matter? One could argue that, given the evidence above, Notre Dame has already done enough to round out a 12-team field.
The Irish have some impressive stats on their side: No. 4 nationally in total defense (273.1 yards per game), No. 2 in scoring defense (11.6 points per game), No. 1 in passing defense (139.5 ypg), No. 6 in scoring offense (39 ppg) and No. 11 in rushing offense (221.8 ypg). Plus, whether it’s fair or not, Notre Dame has the all-important brand recognition on its side as one of college football’s legacy programs.
Another aspect working in Notre Dame’s favor is the fact that it does not have to play in a conference championship game. The promises of automatic bids to each of the five highest-ranked conference champions was seen as a huge drawback for independent Notre Dame. But now it insulates the Irish against a potential third loss. Just look at 9-2 Georgia, which had much consternation and hand-wringing among its fanbase when Auburn beat Texas A&M, sending the Bulldogs to the SEC Championship Game. A win obviously means they’re in, but the opposite result gives UGA a third loss one day before the CFP committee makes its final decision.
Not only does Notre Dame avoid any worry about leaving a sour impression 24 hours before Selection Sunday, but not having to play in a conference title game gives the Irish an added bye week as they prepare for the playoff.
Recent upsets also help Notre Dame’s case, even in a situation where it falls to 10-2. The SEC once looked like it was a lock to snag four playoff spots, but Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss all losing to unranked opponents in Week 13 effectively knocked them out of the at-large race. It also seems as if the Big 12 will be a one-bid league.
The only thing, at this point, that would entirely knock Notre Dame out of the conversation is a blowout loss against USC. Otherwise, even in a close defeat, the Irish should be feeling confident.