At every youth game worldwide, there are young people who dream of becoming professional footballers.
The privilege of waking up every day to do what they love most will remain just a fantasy for the vast majority.
Only a minute number of players achieve what so many crave.
Only 0.012% of boys playing organised football in England will play a minute in the Premier League.
Just 1% of players in the English academy system will go on to become professionals at any level.
Yet, there will always be those who never give up on their dreams.
Former England International Jamie Vardy worked in a factory before he became a professional.
Brentford centre-back and Jamaica international Ethan Pinnock studied at University while playing in the 11th tier of English football.
Andy Roberston worked in Marks and Spencers before Scotland’s captain turned pro.
All three of these players benefitted from playing semi-professionally before transitioning into full-time football.
Many players rise to the heights of professional football later in their careers.
Which players in the UK and Ireland could potentially make the step up to play professionally?
This data analysis hopes to find the best Semi-Pro striker in the British Isles who demonstrates the ability to play at the next level.
Data Analysis
This data analysis combined the data of centre forwards from across six Leagues.
The National League North and South, Scottish League 1, Cyrum Premier League, The NIFL Premiership and The League of Ireland First Division.
All these competitions are made up of predominantly Semi-Professional teams.
Teams such as Queen of the South, TNS, Larne, Cork City and Turo City have been removed from the search along with a host of other clubs that would be considered full-time professional teams.
All players needed to have played at least 500 minutes to ensure they had a decent size of data to assess.
Players also couldn’t be older than 26, limiting the number of former professionals that have dropped down from years in the pro game and are unlikely to make the step up again.
Players’ goalscoring ability, link-up play, dribbling, aerial presence and defensive competence were all assessed through data.
Goalscoring
The unequivocal metric to measure the performance of strikers is goals scored.
That’s where our search begins to find five players who we can further assess.
Using Goals per 90 and xG per 90 stats, we can see players who score frequently and constantly have a high number of quality chances.
Five profiles emerged from this initial analysis: John McGovern (Dungannon Swifts, NIFL Premiership), Success Edogun (Finn Harps, League of Ireland First Division), Zack Clarke (Caernarfon Town, Cyrum Premier), David Kawa (Aveley F.C., National LeagueFCuth), and Ken Charles (St. Albans City FC, National LeagueFCouth).
Goals Per 90 vs xG Per 90
All five have been in fine goalscoring form this season.
Kawa is the evident outlier with 0.85 goals per 90 smashing his xG per 90 stat of 0.42.
Goal Conversion Percentage
When you look at these five and their ability to convert their chances, Kawa is again miles ahead, with a goal conversion rate of almost 50%.
In his first season of first-team football, Kawa has only been in the starting team 33% of his side’s fixtures, demonstrating his ability to make the most of his limited opportunities.
Yet what other qualities do the shortlisted strikers possess?
Defensive Competence
The modern forward can’t just be reliant on his ability to score goals.
When his team loses possession, he needs to contribute and be his side’s first line of defence.
Teams at even the lower realms of professional football desire to play an aggressive, pressing game out of possession.
Considering each player’s defensive duels per 90 and defensive duels win percentage, we can understand how often and how successful the forward is in 1v1 defensive battles.
Defensive Duels Per 90 vs Defensive Duels Win Percentage
None of the five players scored above average in both metrics.
Edogun was the closest, scoring slightly above average in number of defensive duels but being just under the mean when it came to the percentage of duels he won.
McGovern, like Edogun, scores above average for number of defensive duels per 90.
Kawa and Clarke impress with a defensive duels win percentage of above 70%.
Charles is below average in both metrics, potentially pointing to a significant weakness in his game.
The Ability To Create
Strikers need to be able to bring their teammates into the game.
It’s not enough for a forward to fail in providing opportunities for their opposition.
By looking at shot assists and key passes per 90, we can see how often the forward can contribute to their side getting shots off on goal.
Key Passes Per 90 vs Shot Assists Per 90
McGovern is clearly the most competent in this regard, which proves why his manager has used him in other positions this season.
He is above average in both metrics.
Edogun scores highly in key passes, whereas Clarke scores high for shot assists.
Kawa and Charles are both disappointingly below average in both metrics.
However, neither are particularly far off from exceeding the mean for key passes.
Aerial Presence
Physical attributes are always carefully examined when clubs are scouting players.
Aerial duels are definitely a key part of a striker’s game.
None of the players could be considered as target men.
Their statistics clearly show this.
Aerial Duels Per 90 vs Aerial Duels Win Percentage
Kawa, McGovern, and Clarke have relatively low scores in both metrics, proving they lack competence in the air.
Both Charles and Edogun have scored above average in their success rate when competing for the ball in the air.
An impressive feature of Charles’ ability in the air is the number of headed goals he’s scored.
Headed Goals
Charles ranked joint top for headed goals out of all the players in the data search.
This may be a great selling point for the forward, as teams that play crosses into the box could use this element of his game.
Dribbling
Forwards often sit on the last defender and look for their teammates to find them with balls over the top of the opposition’s defence.
Yet, they sometimes need to drop deep or run the channels to receive the ball.
In these situations, they have to work hard to keep possession and, even better, progress.
Dribbles per 90 vs Successful Dribble Percentage
This is something each of the selected players have in abundance.
Edogun scores the highest for dribbles per 90.
He averages a remarkable 7.7 dribbles per 90.
Kawa has the greatest percentage in terms of success, showing how efficient he is when dribbling.
Dribbling can so often be the key to unlocking the most resolute of defences.
Each player possesses this quality, which so many teams are desperate for.
Potential
Each player has proved they have the ability to be a standout player at the semi-professional level.
Yet, are they ready for full-time football?
John McGovern has a variety of attributes that would appeal to a professional club.
McGovern, who also plays elite Gaelic football, is highly skilled at creating attacks through his passing and dribbling.
He lacks an aerial presence, which may prevent him from being recruited by a team that plays a direct style of football.
I could see professional clubs across Ireland enquiring about his services.
Clubs in EFL League 2 and Scottish Premiership will also be monitoring his progress due to his age (22) and room to further develop.
Zach Clarke struggles in the air, similar to McGovern, yet he still scored highly in many of the other metrics assessed.
Having previously been on Stockport County’s books, he has room to develop at 21, and I could see clubs in the National League looking to give the Englishman a professional contract.
Kawa and Charles both had areas of weakness that would put professional clubs off.
Both scored low when it came to their ability to create.
Kawa showed a lack of competence in the air, and Charles scored poorly when it came to defensive duels.
However, the goalscoring exploits of both players will help catch the eye of teams in the National League.
Kawa, in particular, having been developed by Kinetic Academy, will be an exciting prospect due to his age and how well he’s performed in his first season of first-team football.
Charles has experience in a full-time environment, formerly being a member of Colchester United’s u21 squad.
Teams may consider that the 24-year-old doesn’t pose as much of a risk when transitioning into the professional game.
Successful Attacking Actions Per 90
Edogun impressed statistically in multiple fields.
When you compare all the players’ successful attacking actions per 90, Edogun is clearly ahead.
I believe that top clubs across Ireland will want to give the game-changing forward at the top level of the game.
Conclusion
This article has proven that there are always talents waiting to progress in the semi-professional game.
Data allows us to quickly identify players with traits that make them potential candidates for transitioning into the pro game.
There is always a risk that a player will not adapt to full-time football.
However, the rewards for both club and player can be astronomical.
