Good morning. All over the western world, incumbent governments have been given a kicking over the cost of living crisis. But in the Irish election, where the counting of results concluded yesterday, it’s a very different story.
Not long ago, Sinn Féin appeared on course to win the popular vote and become the leading party in a new coalition, but its support fell away badly earlier this year. Instead, Ireland’s traditionally dominant parties of the centre-right, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, appear to have it sown up again.
At the same time, the story is one of long-term decline for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which had almost 70% of the vote between them as recently as 2007 and now has less than 43%. Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s acting Ireland correspondent in Dublin, Lisa O’Carroll, explains the results – and why Ireland bucked the trend. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
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Cybercrime | The UK is underestimating the severity of the online threat it faces from hostile states and criminal gangs, the country’s cybersecurity chief will warn on Tuesday. Richard Horne, the head of GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre, will cite a trebling of “severe” incidents amid Russian and Chinese aggression.
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Foreign policy | Keir Starmer has “utterly rejected” the idea that the UK must choose between the United States and Europe when Donald Trump comes to power. In a major foreign policy speech in London, Starmer said the UK would “never turn away” from the US but would continue to “reset” the relationship with Europe.
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US news | Donald Trump seized on Hunter Biden’s pardon to drop one of his strongest hints yet that he intends to grant clemency to at least some of the instigators and participants of the January 6 attack on the US Capitol by a mob trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat.
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Syria | Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have crossed into eastern Syria in an attempt to shore up struggling forces loyal to Damascus. They are battling an insurgency that has swept much of the country’s north-west as Islamist militants seized control of Aleppo.
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Television | Gregg Wallace has apologised for dismissing those who have accused him of inappropriate behaviour as “middle-class women of a certain age”. His remarks came after No 10 condemned his initial remarks as “misogynistic”, and as pressure mounted on the BBC to stop broadcasting Wallace’s programmes.
In depth: ‘This was no simple vote of confidence in the status quo’
The election took place on Friday; results take a while in Ireland because its uses the single transferable vote system (a form of proportional representation), which provides several winners in each of 43 constituencies, and requires multiple rounds of counting.
By the time it all finished last night, though, not a lot had changed: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the two leading parties of the last government, both had almost the same vote share as they did in 2020, with Fianna Fáil winning 48 seats and Fine Gael 38 of the 174 available in the Dáil. (In an expanded parliament with 14 extra seats, that is very slightly more as a proportion than they won in 2020.) Sinn Féin lost a big chunk of vote share, falling from 25% to 19%, and won 39 seats. The biggest losers were the Greens, who were punished by progressive voters for their role in the right-leaning coalition and dropped from 12 seats to one.
Even if the result looks like a maintenance of the status quo, it raises up some big questions: how the coalition will be formed, where Sinn Féin goes from here, and whether any anti-incumbent sentiment can be found at the fringes.
Coalition talks: what price could smaller parties exact?
While Sinn Féin’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, has said that her party has “made contact” with the Social Democrats (SD) and Labour, she has also acknowledged that “the numbers are there” for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. “You need 88 seats for a simple majority, and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have 86,” Lisa O’Carroll said. “They probably need to be in the mid-90s to feel confident in the stability of the government, allowing for resignations and deaths and so on. So the question is whether they try to bring independents on board or enter talks with one of the smaller centre-left parties.”
Turning to some of the 16 independents who won seats would probably mean not having to give up ministries as the price of power, but could mean a less stable coalition because they would be more likely to revolt on specific issues, Lisa said. The alternative is bringing in the Social Democrats or Labour, who finished fourth and fifth respectively. The SD deputy leader, Cian O’Callaghan – his boss, Holly Cairns, had a baby on polling day – has said that the party is open to talks, and Labour hasn’t ruled them out either. But the bitter experience of the “coalition tax” suffered by Labour in the past and the Greens this time around means that both will be wary.
In this piece, Irish Times political editor Pat Leahy says that decision-makers in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would prefer Labour as a political “mudguard” and are sceptical that the Social Democrats are truly interested. Either would want real say on a specific policy area that they can campaign on at the next election – but are aware that with the two biggest parties only two seats away from an outright majority, they have limited leverage. With all outcomes possible, the talks are likely to run for weeks or months – but probably not as long as the four-and-a-half months needed in 2020, since much of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s programme is already aligned this time.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael: ‘Identical twins’
It has been a decent few days for the two giants of the Irish political system. Founded out of a split in nationalist opinion over the 1921 Anglo-Irish treaty that ended the war of independence, they have long been bitter rivals; Fine Gael is the more socially progressive of the two, and tends to do better in Dublin, while Fianna Fáil dominates in much of the rest of the country.
But after four and a half years in their first ever coalition, where they rotated the role of taoiseach, or prime minister, they are sometimes derided by critics as so close together that they may as well merge: in this piece, Fintan O’Toole calls them “the identical twins of Irish politics”. Opposition parties even accuse them of drumming up “phoney war” arguments to differentiate themselves. (In this interview with the Journal in October, the Fine Gael taoiseach, Simon Harris, refused to “compare and contrast” the two – a curious stance during an election campaign.)
“It was a solid result for them both,” Lisa said. “What you’ve seen happening is voters switching between the two parties with their second and third preferences more than they go to the others.” (RTÉ has more on that here.) “The numbers would suggest that Fianna Fáil are likely to choose the first taoiseach, if they do agree to continue to rotate it.” That would mean Harris is likely to give up his job, at least for now.
Sinn Féin: from the brink of power to another term in opposition
Sinn Féin won the most first preference votes in 2020 and, earlier this year, appeared to be on the brink of power, sitting as high as 35% in the polls. But its support has collapsed in 2024, with the nadir being June’s local elections, where it won just over half of the 200 council seats it had targeted and got 12% of the vote. Against that yardstick, it has recovered somewhat recently – but it is nonetheless staring at another term in opposition.
Part of the problem for Sinn Féin is that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael rule out working with it; even as the party has moved away from its past as the political wing of the IRA, both say that the policy differences are too significant to be bridged. But the party has many problems of its own – like the fact that few voters prioritise Irish unity as an issue, and the fact that many of its working-class supporters reject its relatively liberal attitude to immigration.
In this piece, Gail McElroy, a professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin, tells Lisa that Sinn Féin has a different challenge to most nationalist parties in Europe:
Migration is a really difficult issue for them. Sinn Féin are unusual in that they are a leftwing nationalist party. Typically, nationalist parties tend to be on the right and nativist … happy to redistribute money but only to people of a given nationality. Sinn Féin, on the other hand, have quite a socialist economic agenda, which is at odds with that.
Lisa said: “They tried to reset their migration policy in July by saying that asylum seekers should be housed in wealthier areas that have more resources available. But it was too late. Many inner-city communities say that Sinn Féin has abandoned them, and when that becomes established as a view it is hard to change.”
Anti-incumbency: why is it so hard to find?
There are some signs of anti-incumbent sentiment around the edges of Irish politics, like the success of many independent candidates – and even the candidacy of Gerry Hutch, who was named as the head of a notorious crime family in a court case last year and just missed out on a seat in Dublin, where there were recent anti-immigration riots.
The single transferable vote system, meanwhile, minimises oscillations away from the political centre that may be more visible in other systems. “This was no simple vote of confidence in the status quo,” Fintan O’Toole wrote. “Whatever the electorate in Ireland’s increasingly complex and fragmented political system is saying, it is something much more ambiguous than a big thumbs-up emoji.”
Still, said Lisa, in an election where the cost of living and housing were the big issues – subjects that have badly hurt incumbents elsewhere – the relative success of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is pretty remarkable.
Above all, there is the relative stability of the Irish economy. “It is one of the only countries in Europe running a surplus. All of the big parties, including Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, were offering big giveaways to voters. And in a small country where politicians are very rarely parachuted into constituencies they aren’t from, it is less appealing to punish your local TD [Teachta Dála, the equivalent of an MP].”
The other factor is poor organisation on the left: “It wasn’t until the penultimate day before the election that Mary Lou McDonald said that Sinn Féin supporters could use their additional preferences for the Social Democrats and Labour. People didn’t vote with it in mind. In order to have a collapse, you need a concurrent rise on the other side. And that hasn’t happened.”
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What else we’ve been reading
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Two doors down from a gift shop in Vatican City is the Dicastery for the Causes of Saints: the office that decrees who is a saint, and who isn’t. As the Catholic church prepares to anoint its first millennial saint, Carlo Acutis (above), Linda Kinstler’s long read is an utterly fascinating account of the process. (John Paul II got rid of the devil’s advocate.) Archie
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Sean Ingle writes wonderfully on his athlete of the year: Mondo Duplantis, the unstoppable pole vaulter taking the sport to never-before-seen heights (also, it turns out, the inaugural winner of my “name of the year” award). Charlie Lindlar, acting deputy editor, newsletters
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Savour the moment, writes Zoe Williams, a middle class woman of a certain age: Gregg Wallace has “said the quiet part out loud”. Her column is a hugely satisfying riposte to the Masterchef presenter’s telling attempt at self-defence. Archie
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For the How we made column, Lauren Martin interviews the founders of Fabric, who have a romantic and slightly chaotic story to tell about the club’s history: “there was a catalogue of errors behind the scenes, but from the minute we opened, we were on fire.” Archie
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In the New Yorker, David Remnick interviews Sarah McBride, who in November became the first ever transgender person elected to the US Congress. McBride speaks powerfully on the joy and duty that comes with that title. Charlie
Sport
Premier League | West Ham are considering Sérgio Conceição (above) as a replacement for Julen Lopetegui, whose future as manager is under growing pressure after his team’s 5-2 defeat at home against Arsenal on Saturday. Conceição led Porto to three league titles and twice took them to the Champions League quarter-finals.
Women’s football | Every Women’s Championship match will be streamed live on the league’s YouTube channel from next season onwards, the Guardian can reveal. The move will see roughly a six-fold increase in the number of second-tier fixtures being shown live from next term.
Formula One | Teams are demanding more from the sport’s governing body, the FIA, after controversy over decisions at the Qatar Grand Prix. McLaren has called for a review into the penalty imposed on Lando Norris, while the Mercedes team principal described the governance of the FIA as turning into a reality show.
The front pages
“UK cybersecurity chief issues stark warning over hostile state threats” is the Guardian’s lead story. “Starmer: I want even closer ties with the US” says the Times, while the Telegraph leads on “Starmer: I will not side with Trump over Europe”. “Nato chief warns Trump of threat to US if bad deal is forced on Kyiv” – you can hear himself wheezing “bad deal” when you read that Financial Times headline. “Government by talking shop” – the Daily Mail decries a “blizzard” of 67 reviews, consultations and taskforces set up by Labour.
“I’m sorry” – Gregg Wallace’s apology leads the Daily Mirror. The Express has “Gregg Wallace says sorry for ‘any offence caused’”, and the Sun has “Boiling point” on calls for episodes of Masterchef to be pulled. “No hiding place for stalkers” – the Metro reports on a law change giving better protection to victims. And the top story in the i is “Higher energy bills on way to pay for 2030 net-zero drive, PM is warned”.
Today in Focus
Why Joe Biden pardoned his son
Hunter Biden was awaiting sentencing for gun and tax offences when, suddenly, his father pardoned him. Has family loyalty been put above presidential integrity? Chris Michael explains
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Édaein O’ Connell was terrified of being the last single woman left among her friends. The fear began in her teens, when her pals started pairing off, but she soon ended up in a relationship and embraced domesticity. Then, at 28, her relationship broke down and she struggled with how “terrifying it felt to be alone”. But now she’s nearly 30 and she’s finally learned to embrace single life.
She says: “Deep down, I knew I had never been truly afraid of being single or alone – I just didn’t know how to be at peace with myself. So I retrained my brain … and got to know myself better. I’ve come to find true joy in singledom.”
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