Top spot in the World Rugby rankings is up for grabs this weekend as the Springboks could drop as low as third, with the All Blacks and Ireland vying for a place at the summit.
South Africa will face England at Twickenham on Saturday, knowing that they will remain top of the rankings with a victory over Steve Borthwick’s charges. However, a defeat to the side they knocked out of the World Cup last year could see them fall as low as third, depending on the results in Dublin and Paris.
Ireland and New Zealand could finish the weekend as the top-ranked nation in World Rugby if South Africa lose while there is plenty of potential movement in the top 20 of the rankings.
With the help of World Rugby, we take a look at the permutations.
World Rugby rankings permutations
Ireland and New Zealand cannot replace the Springboks as the number one side in the world if Rassie Erasmus’ charges defeat England in the Autumn Nations Series clash at Twickenham on Saturday regardless of their results against Argentina and France, respectively.
However, if the Boks lose to England, New Zealand will go top of the rankings if they beat France at the Stade de France. It would be the first time that the All Blacks were atop the rankings since the 2019 World Cup semi-finals.
For Ireland to return to the top of the rankings, a position they surrendered in defeat to the All Blacks last weekend, Andy Farrell’s men will not only need to beat Argentina but hope that South Africa and New Zealand lose too.
Ireland dropped from first position to third in the rankings after their loss to New Zealand and it is possible for them to slip another place if they fall to back-to-back home defeats by losing to Argentina by more than 15 points and both the Springboks and All Blacks win. This would see Argentina climb two places to third and make up an all-southern hemisphere top three for the first time since 2021.
There is also a scenario where Ireland could drop to fifth in the rankings. This would occur if they lost by more than 15 points to Argentina and France defeat the All Blacks – this would occur regardless of the England-South Africa result.
England dropped to seventh place in the rankings following their defeat to Australia last weekend – their lowest ranking since February 2016 – but even a draw with South Africa would be enough to see them surpass Scotland in sixth place. The Scots face Portugal this weekend and cannot improve their rating even with a comprehensive victory over Os Lobos.
However, England cannot go any higher than sixth as the gap between them and France and Argentina is too great, even if they hammer South Africa.
Australia climbed one spot into eighth with a win over Borthwick’s men last weekend and they can continue to climb if they defeat Wales by more than 15 points and England lose by the same margin. If this were to happen, England would fall to a joint all-time low of eighth.
Italy’s heavy defeat to Argentina last week saw them slip down two places in the rankings, falling to 10th, but the Azzurri have the opportunity to regather at least one place. They will not only need to beat Georgia but hope that Fiji slip to a defeat to Spain as well.
Wales woes could worsen
Warren Gatland’s charges host Australia in Cardiff looking to break their 10-Test losing streak and, in the event that they cannot, Wales will fall to an all-time ranking low of 12th if that loss is paired with a Georgia win over Italy – Wales cannot fall any lower than 12th though.
Eddie Jones’ Japan team can leapfrog Samoa into 13th if beat Uruguay in France this weekend.
History awaits Georgia as they can enter the top 10 for the first time since the rankings were introduced in 2003 but they will need to beat Italy by more than 15 points. If they do so, only Wales can deny them their historic position by beating the Wallabies by the same margin.
Portugal can only improve their ranking if they beat Scotland for the first time and their win is paired with a Japan loss while a draw for the Brave Blossoms would require Os Lobos winning by more than 15 points.
Porgual cannot lose rating points by falling to a defeat to Scotland but they could still lose a ranking position if Spain upset Fiji or the USA beat Tonga by more than 15 points.
See the permutations and current world rankings below
IRELAND (3) 90.58 v ARGENTINA (5) 85.60
Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 90.78, Argentina 85.40
Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 90.88, Argentina 85.30
Draw – Ireland 89.78, Argentina 86.40
Argentina win by 15 points or less – Ireland 88.78, Argentina 87.40
Argentina win by more than 15 points – Ireland 87.88, Argentina 88.30
SCOTLAND (7) 82.70 v PORTUGAL (15) 68.82
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 82.70, Portugal 68.82 (No change)
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 82.70, Portugal 68.82 (No change)
Draw – Scotland 81.70, Portugal 69.82
Portugal win by 15 points or less – Scotland 80.69, Portugal 70.82
Portugal win by more than 15 points – Scotland 79.69, Portugal 71.82
ENGLAND (7) 82.62 v SOUTH AFRICA (1) 92.46
England win by 15 points or less – England 84.31, South Africa 90.78
England win by more than 15 points – England 85.15, South Africa 89.94
Draw – England 83.31, South Africa 91.78
South Africa win by 15 points or less – England 82.31, South Africa 92.78
South Africa win by more than 15 points – England 82.15, South Africa 92.94
FRANCE (4) 86.96 v NEW ZEALAND (2) 91.21
France win by 15 points or less – France 88.08, New Zealand 90.09
France win by more than 15 points – France 88.64, New Zealand 89.53
Draw – France 87.08, New Zealand 91.09
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – France 86.08, New Zealand 92.09
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – France 85.64, New Zealand 92.53
ITALY (10) 78.67 v GEORGIA (12) 74.10
Italy win by 15 points or less – Italy 78.92, Georgia 73.85
Italy win by more than 15 points – Italy 79.04, Georgia 73.03
Draw – Italy 77.92, Georgia 74.85
Georgia win by 15 points or less – Italy 76.92, Georgia 75.85
Georgia win by more than 15 points – Italy 76.04, Georgia 76.73
WALES (11) 75.04 v AUSTRALIA (8) 81.14
Wales win by 15 points or less – Wales ,76.35 Australia 79.83
Wales win by more than 15 points – Wales 77.01, Australia 79.17
Draw – Wales 75.35, Australia 80.82
Australia win by 15 points or less – Wales 74.35, Australia 81.83
Australia win by more than 15 points – Wales 74.01, Australia 82.17
Latest World Rugby rankings as of 15/11/2024
1 South Africa 92.46
2 New Zealand 91.21
3 Ireland 90.58
4 France 86.96
5 Argentina 85.60
6 Scotland 82.70
7 England 82.62
8 Australia 81.14
9 Fiji 80.07
10 Italy 78.67
11 Wales 75.04
12 Georgia 74.10
13 Samoa 72.68
14 Japan 72.31
15 Portugal 68.82
16 USA 67.49
17 Spain 67.10
18 Tonga 66.87
19 Uruguay 66.58
20 Romania 63.87