The Springboks will end the year at the top of the World Rugby rankings provided that they defeat Wales in their final match of the Autumn Nations Series.
South Africa head into the final game of the year with a two-point buffer at the top of the world rankings and cannot be knocked off the summit unless they fall to a defeat regardless of Ireland’s results in their last two games of 2024.
A loss to Wales could see them surrender their number one World Rugby ranking with New Zealand and Ireland able to pounce.
We take a look at the permutations for the penultimate weekend of Tier One international fixtures.
World Rugby Rankings permutations
With there being an 18.77-point difference between South Africa and Wales before home weighting is factored in, the Springboks cannot earn any rating points with a victory over Warren Gatland’s men at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff.
And the same is true for Ireland – with a 10.71 difference – between them and Fiji meaning that neither of the top two teams in the rankings can improve their points tally with a victory. However, a defeat for the Boks paired with a win of any kind for Ireland will see the men from the Emerald Isle reclaim the top spot – possibly by a margin of just 0.02 points.
While South Africa and Ireland cannot improve their ranking this weekend, the All Blacks can if they defeat Italy in Turin. A victory by more than 15 points will see New Zealand increasing their rating to 90.36 which will only be enough to see them move up in the rankings if their victory is paired with a loss for Ireland or South Africa.
If the Springboks lose by more than 15 points to Wales and Ireland fall to Fiji by any margin, then the All Blacks will return to the summit of the world rankings for the first time since the 2019 Rugby World Cup semi-finals.
Meanwhile, France can also improve their ranking this weekend but will also need other results to go their way. A win over Argentina paired with an Italian victory over the All Blacks will see Les Bleus climb above New Zealand into third. Fabien Galthie’s team could finish as high as second but that would require a win over Los Pumas as well as an Italy triumph over New Zealand and a Fijian victory of more than 15 points over Ireland.
But if France fall to a defeat at the hands of Argentina, it will be the South Americans who move up the rankings with a win seeing them leapfrog the French into fourth. Third place is a possibility for the Argentines if they defeat Les Bleus by more than 15 points and the All Blacks suffer a shock loss by the same margin to the Azzurri.
Over to Murrayfield and if Scotland end the Wallabies’ Grand Slam hopes in emphatic fashion, they will collect nearly a full rating point but that will not be enough for them to improve on their sixth-place ranking.
However, Australia will replace the Scots in sixth place – moving up two spots – if they keep their Grand Slam hopes alive with the hosts potentially slipping down to eighth.
There is a scenario that could see Scotland tumble down four places but it requires several shock results over the weekend. Australia would need to claim a win of more than 15 points with that being paired with Italy pulling off a shock win against the All Blacks and Fiji avoiding defeat in Dublin.
As for England, if Steve Borthwick’s side end their five-game losing streak by defeating Eddie Jones’ Japan team, they will not improve their rating due to the 9.36-point gap between the two teams.
Even if they do beat the Brave Blossoms as Twickenham, England could still fall a place in the rankings dropping to eighth if Australia and Scotland draw at Murrayfield – it would be England’s joint lowest-ever position.
If Japan claim their first-ever win over England, Borthwick’s men could sink to an all-time low of 10th if their defeat is paired with wins for Italy, Ireland and Scotland.
History awaits Italy this weekend as a maiden victory over the All Blacks would also see them equal their highest-ever ranking of eighth but that win would have to come with England and Fiji defeats.
As for the Pacific Islanders, an all-time high of sixth is within their grasp if they beat Ireland by more than 15 points and other results go their way: Wales losing to South Africa and England falling to Japan.
Opinion: France are robbing the public of an all-time great series against the All Blacks
France (4) 88.08 v Argentina (5) 85.40
France win by 15 points or less – France 88.51, Argentina 84.97
France win by more than 15 points – France 88.73, Argentina 84.75
Draw – France 87.51, Argentina 85.97
Argentina win by 15 points or less – France 86.51, Argentina 86.97
Argentina win by more than 15 points – France 85.73, Argentina 87.75
Ireland (2) 90.78 v Fiji (9) 80.07
Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 90.78, Fiji 80.07 (No change) Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 90.78, Fiji 80.07 (No change)
Draw – Ireland 89.78, Fiji 81.07
Fiji win by 15 points or less – Ireland 88.78,
Fiji 82.07 Fiji win by more than 15 points – Ireland 87.78, Fiji 83.07
Wales (11) 74.01 v South Africa (1) 92.78
Wales win by 15 points or less – Wales 76.01, South Africa 90.78 Wales win by more than 15 points – Wales 77.01, South Africa 89.78
Draw – Wales 75.01, South Africa 91.78
South Africa win by 15 points or less – Wales 74.01, South Africa 92.78 (No change)
South Africa win by more than 15 points – Wales 74.01, South Africa 92.78 (No change)
Italy (10) 78.92 v New Zealand (3) 90.09
Italy win by 15 points or less – Italy 80.73, New Zealand 88.27
Italy win by more than 15 points – Italy 81.64, New Zealand 87.36
Draw – Italy 79.73, New Zealand 89.27
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – Italy 78.73, New Zealand 90.27
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – Italy 78.64, New Zealand 90.36
Scotland (6) 82.70 v Australia (8) 82.17
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 83.34, Australia 81.52
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 83.67, Australia 81.20
Draw – Scotland 82.34, Australia 82.52
Australia win by 15 points or less – Scotland 81.34, Australia 83.52
Australia win by more than 15 points – Scotland 80.67, Australia 84.20
England (7) 82.31 v Japan (13) 72.95
England win by 15 points or less – England 82.31, Japan 72.95 (No change)
England win by more than 15 points – England 82.31, Japan 72.95 (No change)
Draw – England 81.31, Japan 73.95
Japan win by 15 points or less – England 80.31, Japan 74.95
Japan win by more than 15 points – England 79.31, Japan 75.95
Current World Rugby Rankings (As of 22/11/2024)
1 South Africa 92.78
2 Ireland 90.78
3 New Zealand 90.09
4 France 88.08
5 Argentina 85.40
6 Scotland 82.70
7 England 82.31
8 Australia 82.17
9 Fiji 80.07
10 Italy 78.92
11 Wales 74.01
12 Georgia 73.85
13 Japan 72.95
14 Samoa 72.68
15 USA 68.90
16 Portugal 68.82
17 Spain 67.10
18 Uruguay 65.94
19 Tonga 65.46
20 Romania 63.87