Ireland, South Africa and New Zealand could top the World Rugby rankings depending on their results in the Autumn Nations Series this weekend.
It’s a three-horse race to see who will be on the rankings summit by the end of the weekend with the Irish, All Blacks and Springboks all having a chance of retaining or claiming the number one spot in the world.
We run through the permutations.
Tight at the top of the world rankings
For World Cup champions South Africa to return to the summit of the rankings, a position they surrendered after their defeat to Argentina in the Rugby Championship, then Rassie Erasmus’ men must defeat Scotland and Ireland must fail to beat the All Blacks.
A draw would even be enough for the Springboks to go top of the rankings if Ireland fall to just their second home defeat since Andy Farrell took over as head coach in 2020.
However, a 20th consecutive home victory for Ireland would see them retain top spot and they could increase their lead to as much as 3.35 rating points if they beat the All Blacks by more than 15 points and Scotland do the same to the Springboks.
New Zealand could go top of the rankings for the first time since the Rugby World Cup semi-finals if they defeat Ireland and South Africa lose to Scotland, which would see Scott Robertson’s jump from third to first.
In the event that Scotland and the Springboks play out a stalemate, the All Blacks will have to have beaten Ireland more than 15 points to return to number one in the rankings.
Potential movement lower down
France cannot improve their ranking this weekend regardless of the potential margin of victory over Japan as a result of the 14.65-point difference between the teams before home advantage is weighted in.
However, Les Bleus could surrender fourth place to one of Argentina, England and Scotland if they lose to Eddie Jones’ Brave Blossoms.
Argentina will jump two places if they beat Italy in their Autumn Nations Series fixture and France are beaten by Japan. That will occur regardless of the result between Australia and England.
For England, they could climb to fourth but they must not only defeat the Wallabies but also hope that Argentina and Scotland fail to win and France lose by more than 15 points.
In the event that both Argentina and Scotland win this weekend, then England will fall a place to sixth even if they defeat Joe Schmidt’s Australia by a margin of more than 15 points – two if France’s defeat is by a smaller margin. This would see England fall to their lowest ranking since February 2016.
As for the Scots, an all-time high of fourth awaits them if they beat the Springboks by more than 15 points and Los Pumas secure a narrow win over Italy.
The Azzurri cannot improve on their current all-time high ranking of eighth even if they defeat Argentina by more than 15 points and could even drop a ranking place if Australia beat England.
Wales woes could continue
A record 10th consecutive defeat could see Wales drop to a new low in the rankings of 12th. This is possible if Warren Gatland’s team lose by more than 15 points to Fiji and Japan beat France by the same margin.
As for the Fijians, they could climb as many as two places with a win over Wales but is dependant on the scoreline and results involving the teams around them in the rankings.
Wales can only cut the gap between them and Fiji to 0.03 rating points with a win of more than 15 points as they cannot improve on their 11th place in the rankings.
Permutations
Ireland (1) 92.12 v New Zealand (3) 89.67
Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 92.58, New Zealand 89.21
Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 92.80, New Zealand 88.99
Draw – Ireland 91.58, New Zealand 90.21
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – Ireland 90.58, New Zealand 91.21
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – Ireland 89.80, New Zealand
England (5) 84.43 v Australia (9) 79.32
England win by 15 points or less – England 84.62, Australia 79.14
England win by more than 15 points – England 84.72, Australia 79.04
Draw – England 83.62, Australia 80.14
Australia win by 15 points or less – England 82.62, Australia 81.14
Australia win by more than 15 points – England 81.72, Australia 82.04
Italy (8) 79.98 v Argentina (6) 84.30
Italy win by 15 points or less – Italy 81.11, Argentina 83.17
Italy win by more than 15 points – Italy 81.67, Argentina 82.60
Draw – Italy 80.11, Argentina 84.17
Argentina win by 15 points or less – Italy 79.11, Argentina 85.17
Argentina win by more than 15 points – Italy 78.67, Argentina 85.60
France (4) 86.96 v Japan (14) 72.31
France win by 15 points or less – France 86.96, Japan 72.31 (No change)
France win by more than 15 points – France 86.96, Japan 72.31 (No change)
Draw – France 85.96, Japan 73.31
Japan win by 15 points or less – France 84.96, Japan 74.31
Japan win by more than 15 points – France 83.96, Japan 75.31
Wales (11) 76.04 v Fiji (10) 79.07
Wales win by 15 points or less – Wales 77.04, Fiji 78.07
Wales win by more than 15 points – Wales 77.54, Fiji 77.56
Draw – Wales 76.04, Fiji 79.06
Fiji win by 15 points or less – Wales 75.04, Fiji 80.07
Fiji win by more than 15 points – Wales 74.54, Fiji 80.56
Scotland (7) 83.39 v South Africa (2) 91.77
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 84.93, South Africa 90.23
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 85.70, South Africa 89.46
Draw – Scotland 83.93, South Africa 91.23
South Africa win by 15 points or less – Scotland 82.93, South Africa 92.23
South Africa win by more than 15 points – Scotland 82.70, South Africa 92.46
READ MORE: How to watch Scotland v Springboks at Murrayfield: TV channel, live stream, kick-off time
Latest World Rankings as of 7/11/2024
1 Ireland 92.12
2 South Africa 91.77
3 New Zealand 89.67
4 France 86.96
5 England 84.43
6 Argentina 84.30
7 Scotland 83.39
8 Italy 79.98
9 Australia 79.32
10 Fiji 79.07
11 Wales 76.04
12 Georgia 74.10
13 Samoa 72.68
14 Japan 72.31
15 Portugal 70.61
16 Tonga 68.12
17 Uruguay 67.39
18 Spain 66.29
19 USA 65.70
20 Romania 62.62